Bitcoin has been leading cryptocurrencies on a downward trend since June 30 when it lost support above $12,000, and since then it has been pulling down other top-20 coins. Monday, July 1, Bitcoin lost its grip on $11,000 price mark and today, July 2, it has really been bouncing under and over the $10,000 price mark.
The dip prompted several market analysts to announce a 40% correction was imminent before we would witness a true bull run, and early today we did see $9796 which is reaching the point of a 30% correction. It definitely looks like the market may be in for a couple weeks of extreme volatility, which means it is always a good idea to evaluate your positions and do some price analysis. Might be you will have to re-balance your portfolio a little?
Remember that just last week, on June 26, we saw the price surge up to $13,756 and now we see traders and news websites talking about long-term retracements. If you are new to Bitcoin or trading crypto, you will soon notice this is a trend in itself: when we see price gains people are quick to call a new bull market and drops always mean only gloom is ahead! Kind of ironic given the volatile nature of Bitcoin trading.
- Moving Averages - Above you can see a 9-day MA (red) and a 21-day MA (green), we can see a crossover point on the 17th June which was an indication that the market was going to enter a bullish trend - which it did. As of yet, it has not crossed back over, though remember that MA indicators will always lag behind the market.
- RSI - Bitcoin's 14-day RSI, currently at 53, is very neutral and not really telling us much at all if we should buy or sell.
- Stochastic Oscillator - Both our fast Stoch (3 day) and slow (14 day) are trending down towards oversold conditions. If you look back to June 10, just before the recent price rally, you can see these indicators were nearly under 20. If you are charting, this will be the indicator to keep your eye on.
There are also some other signs that we are in for a turbulent few weeks of trading. Historically, an increased supply of the stablecoin tether (USDT) tends to have a knock on effect of Bitcoin price gains but also much higher volatility. And guess what?
Let the rollercoaster begin.
Recently, Ethereum price has seen a couple of attempts to settle above $300 price mark, but ultimately the bulls failed to gain any momentum. I am starting to wonder if ETH will ever see some real momentum without being able to break away from the knot that ties it to Bitcoin. As soon as Bitcoin showed a bearish trend, these past few days, ETH's price has dipped.
- Moving Averages - Looking very similar to our Bitcoin chart above. Our MA9 and MA21 indicators are showing buy signals. Again remember that Moving Averages tend to lag a bit behind the market trend.
- RSI - Ethereum's 14-day RSI, currently at 51, is very neutral and not really telling us much at all if we should buy or sell.
- Stochastic Oscillator - Both of our stoch indicators are going towards oversold conditions, our slow stoch indicator is currently at 29. Remember if it gets much closer to the 20 level many traders will see this as a very strong signal to buy.
I believe we will stay under $300 potentially for most of July, because it is still a major resistance level and very much tied to how Bitcoin performs. However, I expect to see a bullish trend on ETH with a much larger price rally during the latter part of 2019 for the following reasons:
- Announcements from the upcoming Devcon event, we find crypto is filled with news traders so this could lead to some very interesting trading.
- Recently there are various top-20 altcoins that have been performing irrespective of Bitcoin's downward momentum see LINK or QTUM, for example, which I think could be a sign that ETH could do the same.
- We see more and more major exchanges closing themselves off to U.S. based traders, imagine a scenario where these traders decide to move more into trading ETH based tokens on decentralized exchanges.
Ethereum Classic's price contrary to Bitcoin or Ethereum has been quite stable the past few days, during 24 hours it can see some price swings but the closing price has been quite stable. That being said over the past 7 days it is down by -17.20%. The next resistance level for ETC looks to be around the $8.05 price mark, however, we may be in for another dip before we see any bullish market momentum.
- Moving Averages - As we can see ETC's MA9 has crossed back under its MA21 on July 1, this will be a signal for some traders to sell.
- RSI - Ethereum Classic's 14-day RSI is currently at 41, not really as neutral as Bitcoin or Ethereum but not yet showing clear oversold conditions. This could be seen as another indication that traders are selling, and the price will dip.
- Stochastic Oscillator - Here we see both our slow and fast stoch indicator's are also showing signs (25) that traders are selling, though they are very close to entering oversold conditions which could reverse the trend.
Due to these signals, I believe we will still see quite a bit of sell pressure on ETC throughout the next few days, and we will see a dip down to the next support levels at $7.40, $7.04 or even $6.75 before seeing a bigger price rally.
Overall for ETC, I remain very bullish and believe we will see much bigger price gains before the end of the year, up to the $20 price range:
- There is the upcoming etcsummit event in October, where I am sure we will see some announcements.
- Recent developments such as EtherCluster or Metronome's chain hop.
- Independent projects such as Saturn Network, P3C, Onex Network, Bitcoin Classic Token, and iNTRO Token have all been growing positively.
That's all for now! Please come join our forum and let me know if you have any thoughts on the current market trends.
Do remember I am not a financial adviser, always do your own research before entering into any trades or cryptocurrency investments.